The 2023 coaching carousel truly started spinning last week as the regular season nears its conclusion
By Dennis Dodd
• 8 min read
The Silly Season jumped up on us like a blitzing linebacker. After a season that included the longest stretch of games without a performance-based firing in quote some time, Jimbo Fisher, Andy Avalos and Zach Arnett got The Big Haircut this week. San Diego State's Brady Hoke retired, too.
Northwestern made David Braun its permanent coach after Pat Fitzgerald was fired for cause. Michigan State is still looking for its replacement for Mel Tucker.
All of it should be considered against the backdrop of two key dates coming up. The transfer portal window opens Dec. 4, and the early signing period begins Dec. 20 with college football's first National Signing Day of the year.
Time is running out to fire and hire coaches, especially for the remaining Power Four conferences, which all expand to some degree in 2024. Consider this Silly Season, then, a final adjustment at the top before that expansion.
Let's take a gander at how the hot seat looks at the moment with two weeks left in the regular season plus conference championship games ahead.
A reminder about our ratings key (and ourcomplete set of preseason Hot Seat Rankings):
- 5 -- Win or be fired
- 4 -- Star improving now
- 3 -- Pressure is mounting
- 2 -- All good ... for now
- 1 -- Safe and secure
- 0 -- Untouchable
2023 Hot Seat Rankings: Late-season update
Staying hot
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Allen | 5 | The Wisconsin win was refreshing, but as we've learned, the Badgers aren't that good. The Hoosiers are 9-25 since the beginning of 2021. There is still the matter of a $20 million buyout for Allen. Hey, maybe Texas A&M has some extra buyout money left over. Allen's is $16 million if he is let go before December 2024. Previous rating: 5 | |
| Danny Gonzales | 5 | This Rocky Long disciple hasn't been able to transfer the excellence of his old coach with the Lobos. Gonzales is 10-31. The program hasn't been to a bowl since 2016 under -- wait, can this be true? -- Bob Davie. Gonzales' buyout is only $400,000. Previous: 5 | |
| Dino Babers | 4 | There is nothing more valued in football than consistency. Babers has been consistently inconsistent. The Orange started the 2022 season at 6-0, then finished 1-6. The team just ended a five-game losing streak and at 5-5 should get to a bowl. The question remains from the preseason: Is this what Syracuse wants in Year 8 of Babers. Previous: 4 |
Warming up
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chip Kelly | 4 | 247Sports has reported Kelly is in trouble. That's the biggest shocker of the Silly Season so far. We knew Jimbo could be fired; it was just a matter of the buyout. Kelly was neither on the hot seat nor thought to be looking for another job. He has made progress following a 9-4 season with a 6-4 record to date. The Bruins have kind of morphed into a defense-dominant program, which is unexpected. Kelly was hired for his offensive wizardry -- and not by current athletic director Martin Jarmond. That might be the difference here. There is also the influence of UCLA going to the Big Ten next year. Watch this one closely. Previous: 2 | |
| Sam Pittman | 4 | Only Vanderbilt has a worse record in the SEC. The only conference win (against Florida) was uplifting, but will it be enough? Texas A&M's actions this week were a reminder there are no survivors in the SEC, just competitors who are willing to spend the money. Not much has changed since firing offensive coordinator Dan Enos on Oct. 22. Before Enos was fired: 26.5 points; after: 24.5 points. Previous rating: 3 | |
| Justin Wilcox | 4 | Cal has annual money problems. It also has a football problem lately. Which issue will prevail as the Bears migrate to the ACC next year? Cal last beat an FBS team with a winning record (Oregon State!) in mid-2021. "The Game" against Stanford will be a referendum of some sort on Wilcox. He is 3-3 against the Cardinal. Previous: 3 | |
| Dana Holgorsen | 4 | You never know with Houston and Holgorsen. There hasn't been that signature win in a 4-6 season. Holgorsen might need one as a boost for the Cougars' entry into the new(est) version of the Big 12 in 2024. In the last 2.5 seasons, Holgorsen has won 24 games but only nine of them against teams in the regular season with a winning record. USA Today recently named Holgorsen one of the most overpaid coaches in the country. Previous: 3 |
Not as cool
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Napier | 3 | Napier will be given time. There has been progress in building the program, but the last three weeks haven't been good (combined 134 points given up to Georgia, Arkansas and LSU). The Gators won't make a rash decision given their immensely tough schedule to close the season, but Napier does need to show well against Missouri and Florida State -- and keep as much of his (previously ranked No. 3) recruiting class together as possible. Previous rating: 2 | |
| Dave Aranda | 3 | Two seasons ago, the Bears won the Big 12. Since then, Aranda is 9-14. Given the school's commitment to him, it looks like it would take more than a couple of down seasons for Baylor to make a move. Aranda is making $3.8 million through 2029. AD Mack Rhoades has hinted at assistant coach changes. Previous: 1 | |
| Kevin Wilson | 3 | Wilson is 4-18 in only in his second year. It's clear the program has declined in what should be the dominant Group of Five conference going forward (the MWC champion could compete for a playoff spot every year beginning in 2024). Nevada is miles away from that dream. Watch Brent Vigen's name emerge if Nevada makes a change. The Montana State coach won an FCS championship in 2021 and was Josh Allen's offensive coordinator at Wyoming. Big decision coming up. Wilson has been an assistant or head coach at Nevada for a quarter century. Previous: 1 | |
| Kirk Ferentz | 2 | Let's be clear: Ferentz is going to make the call on his future. He could run for governor and win in a runaway. But he is 68, and soon there won't be a Big Ten West left as a lifeline to play for a conference title once the league merges into one division next season. His disgust was obvious at having his son (offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz) fired by the interim AD. One early name to watch as a replacement is Kentucky's Mark Stoops. Previous: 1 |
Holding steady
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bloomgren | 3 | Net progress for Bloomgren in Year 5. At 4-6, the Owls can still get to a bowl. At a place like Rice where football doesn't influence the entire university, you never know, but Bloomgren has made progress. He is without the AD that hired him, and the new AD, Tommy McClelland, came from Vanderbilt after being involved in the hire of Clark Lea and overseeing an ongoing significant facilities upgrade. Previous rating: 3 | |
| Dana Dimel | 3 | Dimel was 17-40 coming into the season, so how hot could his seat be? He has survived worse. The Miners (3-7) have still beaten only one FBS team this season (FIU as Sam Houston State is still transitioning). Previous: 3 | |
| Dabo Swinney | 2 | The Tigers are bowl eligible, which is something. Dabo was reverted to advising his clients to buy low and sell high because Clemson is comin'. (Where have we heard that before?) The goal remains becoming nationally relevant again. Remaining games against North Carolina and South Carolina will go a long way toward how much Clemson stock will be worth in the offseason. Dabo's name has also surfaced at Texas A&M. Previous: 2 | |
| Marcus Freeman | 2 | Perception is a week-to-week proposition at Notre Dame, but after losing to Clemson since our last update, a New Year's Six bowl is no longer in the cards for the Fighting Irish. The pressure does not seem to be on Freeman, though he is 3-3 in his last six games. Two of those losses are current top 10 teams (Ohio State, Louisville), while this season's signature win (USC) is now unranked. Previous: 2 | |
| Lincoln Riley | 1 | Firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was the move Riley needed to make. Well, short of winning the Pac-12, getting into the CFP and winning the national title -- all out of reach again in Year 2. The regular season ends against UCLA. After that, watch for a possible matchup with Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. The biggest offseason news might be identifying the next DC because there is some talent on that side of the ball. Previous: 1 |
Cooling off
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Brown | 4 | This is a complicated one. Brown definitely started the season on the hot seat and has definitely made progress. The Mountaineers (6-4) are bowl eligible for the first time since 2021 and could end up 8-4 with games remaining against Cincinnati and Baylor. But external forces may push the powers that be to make a move. Consider that native West Virginian Jimbo Fisher and former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez are sort of hovering out there if interested. Also watch Tony Gibson. Previous rating: 5 | |
| Butch Jones | 3 | Jones needed to show progress in Year 3. At 5-5, a winning season and a bowl are possible heading into season-ending games against Texas State and Marshall. The season started with combined losses to Oklahoma and Memphis by a combined 110-3. The program has been stabilized if nothing else. True freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor has injected some life. Previous: 4 | |
| Jim Harbaugh | 2 | We misread the situation. At Michigan, Harbaugh has been martyred. He's a hero. You saw that Monday when he proclaimed Michigan's "America's Team." If anything, his job security has been enhanced. At least that's the Maize-and-Blue point of view. Michigan has painted a picture of being persecuted. Harbs is the program's patron saint at this point whether he beats Ohio State, wins a national championship or is suspended by the NCAA. Remember, Harbaugh is still the subject of two NCAA investigations that could both result in major penalties. Adversity? What adversity? Previous: 3 |
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