The Atlanta Braves struggled through a four-game losing streak that started with a loss to the Cubs, but ended their homestand on a good note by salvaging the final game of their four-game set with the San Diego Padres with a 3-0 nightcap victory. Next up, the Braves embark on a six-game road trip that begins Tuesday in Chicago against the Cubs. Atlanta is 27-17 for the season and are 5-5 over their last 10 games. They will enter play Tuesday 5.0 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings. While looking up at anyone is relatively unfamiliar territory for them at this point, they still have the sixth-best record in MLB despite an 8-8 May thus far. May, in general, has been a weird scuffle point for the club, as they went just 15-14 last May en route to 104 wins, 13-15 in 2022 en route to 101 wins, and 13-12 in 2021. During this run of division titles, only the 2018 team really peaked early, as the other teams all really took off during the summer.
The Braves began their most recent homestand by taking two of three against the Cubs. Atlanta shut out Chicago over the first two games of the series before dropping the series finale, 7-1. They were then outscored 12-2 and struck out 29 times over the first two games against the Padres. Atlanta jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the early game of Monday’s doubleheader only to watch the bullpen give it away late in a 6-5 loss. Atlanta snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-0 win in the nightcap thanks to another dominant performance from Chris Sale.
While their offense has been mostly down for the last month, reinforcements could be on the way. Travis d’Arnaud returned in the second game Monday after taking a foul ball off the mask on Friday. He avoided another concussion and had three hits in skid-snapping win. Austin Riley missed his seventh straight game Monday due to soreness in his side. Riley has been working on the field but still hasn’t been cleared to swing a bat. Catcher Sean Murphy is slated to begin a rehab assignment at Gwinnett on Tuesday. Murphy has been sidelined since Opening Day when he suffered an oblique strain. He could rejoin the club at some point on the road trip.
After the series in Atlanta, the Cubs returned to Wrigley Field where they dropped three of four to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago is 26-22 for the season and are 1.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead. Former Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson is on the Injured List with a sprained knee and missed the series at Truist Park. He could return to the lineup as soon as Tuesday’s series opener. Nico ho*rner suffered a hamstring injury while taking batting practice at Truist Park and has missed six straight games. He too could return to the lineup sometime in the upcoming series.
Tuesday, May 21, 7:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South, TBS)
Charlie Morton (8 GS, 46.0 IP, 23.7 K%, 9.1 BB%, 3.52 ERA, 4.02 FIP)
Charlie Morton will face the Cubs in a rematch Tuesday and will be looking for better results this time around. Morton started the series finale last week and wasn’t sharp, allowing five hits, three walks and three earned runs in just three innings. It was Morton’s shortest start of the season and snapped a stretch of seven straight starts where he had pitched into the sixth inning. The three walks issued by Morton were the most in a game since he walked five on April 8 against the Mets. It was kind of a weird outing in that it sort of came out of nowhere, as Morton had rolled for five straight starts.
Javier Assad (9 GS, 48.1 IP, 21.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1.49 ERA, 2.95 FIP)
Morton will match up again against Cubs righty Javier Assad. Assad has quietly put together an excellent start to the season posting a 1.49 ERA and a 2.95 FIP through his first 48 1/3 innings. His 3.94 xFIP is more pedestrian — his good numbers are largely the result of allowing just two homers all season, and none in his past six starts. He held the Braves in check last Wednesday at Truist Park allowing just four hits over six scoreless innings to go along with seven strikeouts and just one walk as his teammates jumped on Morton. It was by far his best outing of the season. As a result, Tuesday’s game will be an interesting rematch where the Braves will be looking to turn the tables on last Wednesday’s unfortunate result on both sides of the ball.
Wednesday, May 22, 7:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (9 GS, 49.2 IP, 19.0 K%, 9.8 BB%, 3.81 ERA, 3.96 FIP)
Max Fried will take his turn in Wednesday’s game and will be looking to bounce back from a short outing last time out. Fried pitched well early but was unable to escape the fifth against the Padres, getting charged with nine hits and three runs while throwing 88 pitches in just 4 1/3 innings. Fried has pitched well against the Cubs in his career with a 1.24 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 2.87 xFIP in five career starts against Chicago. He dominated them last year in his return from the Injured List, firing an 8/0 K/BB ratio over six shutout innings in one of his best outings of 2023.
Justin Steele (4 GS, 19.0 IP, 22.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 5.21 ERA, 5.47 FIP)
Cubs’ lefty Justin Steele will make his fifth start of the season opposite Fried Wednesday. Steele missed all of April while recovering from a hamstring injury that he suffered on Opening Day. He is looking to regain his form after back-to-back tough outings. After throwing 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the Padres in his return from the IL, Steele has allowed 10 earned runs in his next two starts combined (9 2/3 innings).
Steele was incredibly good (4.9 fWAR) in his breakout 2023 season, but has been plagued by homers so far in 2024, as he’s allowed five in his last 9 2⁄3 innings of work. Largely a two-pitch guy, Steele’s strange, cutting four-seamer has lost some of its cut in the early going, which has led to it drifting out over the middle of the plate.
Thursday, May 23, 2:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
TBD
The Braves haven’t announced their starter for Thursday’s game but did recall Darius Vines to the active roster on Monday. If Vines isn’t needed out of the bullpen between now and Thursday, he is the most likely candidate to get the start.
TBD
The Cubs also haven’t announced their starter for Thursday’s game. Kyle Hendricks would be on track rotation-wise, but was lit up in his last start. After missing some time with lower back pain, Hendricks returned from the Injured List on May 12 and allowed one run over five innings against the Pirates despite an ugly 5/4 K/BB ratio. He faced them again five days later in a rematch and lit up the box score by getting charged with seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, despite a 4/0 K/BB ratio. Go figure. That was the third time this season that Hendricks had allowed seven runs in a start. Hendricks has a 7.71 ERA, 7.00 FIP, and 4.46 xFIP in nine career appearances against Atlanta, despite a career set of ERA and estimators in the mid-to-high 3.00s.
