Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream Odds and Predictions (2024)

The second half of the 2024 WNBA season is in full swing, and one of the games on tap from today's slate features the Las Vegas Aces (18-12 SU, 10-20 ATS) hosting the Atlanta Dream (10-20 SU, 15-13-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this matchup and why.

Aces vs. Dream – Season Stats & Betting Trends

Las Vegas is the heavy favorite vs. Atlanta

After compiling 16 wins across their first 23 outings, the Aces have come back down to earth a bit, posting a 2-5 record in their last seven games.

In the team's most recent outing — a 93-90 loss to the lowly Dallas Wings — MVP frontrunner A'ja Wilson led the charge with 42 points on 16-of-22 shooting from the field and a 10-for-13 effort from the charity stripe. She also tallied six rebounds and three blocked shots.

Jackie Young added 17 points, six rebounds and six assists, while Chelsea Gray contributed 15 points and five rebounds.

Las Vegas led by a 69-61 margin heading into the final frame. But the Wings, coming off a come-from-behind win against the Los Angeles Sparks , put together an impressive fourth quarter in which they outscored the Aces by a 32-21 margin.

The victory snapped a seven-game losing streak against the defending champions.

On the other side of the narrative, the Dream were firing on all cylinders, posting a three-game winning streak following the midseason Olympic break. Unfortunately, they followed that up with losses in each of their last three outings, including an 85-81 setback against the Seattle Storm on Wednesday night.

In that contest, four of the team's starters reached double figures. Allisha Gray set the tone with 22 points and five rebounds. Tina Charles finished with a triple-double that included 19 points, a whopping 17 rebounds and 10 assists.

Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada contributed 12 points apiece.

Atlanta held an 81-77 advantage with just 1:39 left to play in regulation, but it went scoreless on its last three possessions and committed two turnovers.

Dream coach Tanisha Wright admitted she didn't draw up the right sets to help her team in the last few minutes.

Can the Aces rebound from a disappointing showing in their last outing, or will the Wings secure their first three-game winning streak of the season?

Now that we have set the stage for this pivotal matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Aces vs. Dream Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks and analysis

Spread

Despite their 2-5 record as of late, the Aces enter this matchup as a 10.5-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Aces are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
• Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
• The Dream are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine contests.
• Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.
• In their last 11 matchups against Western Conference opponents, the Dream are 8-1-2 against the spread.
• Prediction: Atlanta Dream (+10.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 165.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Aces' last 10 games.
• The UNDER total is 6-1 in Las Vegas's last seven Friday night outings.
• The total has gone UNDER 12 times in the Dream's last 16 contests following an ATS win.
• The UNDER total is 4-1 in Atlanta's last five matchups against teams with an overall winning record.
• Prediction: UNDER 165.5 points

Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of Bet365)

Following her 22-point, five-rebound performance against Seattle, Allisha Gray is the key player to watch for the road team. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points.

Do Gray's numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• During the season, Gray has been averaging 16.0 points per contest.
• In the previous pair of meetings against the Aces this season, Gray has averaged 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest on 33.3 percent shooting overall and 50 percent from deep.
• Gray has played against Western Conference teams 15 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 16.7 points per outing.
• In 14 road contests, the Atlanta Dream guard averages 16.1 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Gray has averaged 17.6 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Allisha Gray OVER 16.5 points

On the heels of her spectacular 42-point explosion against Dallas, A'ja Wilson is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this WNBA matchup.

• During the season, Wilson has averaged 27.1 points per game.
• In the previous two meetings against Atlanta, Wilson has put up 30.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per contest on 50 percent shooting overall and 60 percent from 3-point range.
• Wilson has suited up against Eastern Conference teams 13 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 25.0 points per game.
• In 16 home contests, the Aces center averages 26.5 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Wilson has averaged 27.0 points, 13.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: A'ja Wilson OVER 26.5 points

Aces vs. Dream Final Picks

• The Spread: Atlanta Dream (+10.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: UNDER 165.5 points (OddsShark.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Allisha Gray OVER 16.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: A'ja Wilson OVER 26.5 points