Mike McClure - Vegas Expert Picks - Money Mike - SportsLine.com (2024)

Analysis:

My simulations suggest that the total should be set between o9 (-125) and o9.5 (-105). Either would require 10+ runs to cash, but here a 5-4 game gets us home on o8.5 in this matchup. Weather conditions are ideal at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper 80s and solid humidity. I like the Orioles to contribute enough here against Nestor Cortes, who has been pretty poor with his fastball, allowing a .346 wOBA and an average exit velocity of 92.6 MPH. I'm on the Over.

Analysis:

My simulations suggest that the total should be set at 9, requiring 10 runs for a win condition. Here, we have a win condition at 9 while keeping the push in play at 8. With the massive heatwave across parts of the country, we have officially entered air density season. Friday in Atlanta will see temperatures in the 90s with humidity above 35%, which gives us an ADI in the mid-50s. Conditions like this turn Truist Park into one of the best hitting environments in MLB. Tampa is much better against lefties than righties, and the park shift is significant. I'm on the Over.

Analysis:

Carlos Rodon and Seth Lugo are both pitchers who are likely to experience negative regression against quality lineups, especially as we get into the warmer months. Kauffman Stadium continues to play as one of the best hitting environments in MLB, far better than Yankee Stadium. My concern with Nestor Cortes is he's allowing the highest hard hit rate of his career this season, especially with his fastball, which he throws 55% of the time. The .368 xwOBA is far below MLB average, but the 93 MPH average exit velocity is the big concern here against a stingy Royals lineup. On the other side, this is a tough test for Seth Lugo who has drastically overperformed with his low wiff rate fastball.

Analysis:

I'm on the Royals here as I have them winning 52 percent of simulations at home against Bryce Miller, which implies this line should be -108 not +118. Miller is a big regression candidate as he simply benefits from the strong pitching environment in Seattle. His .294 wOBA looks much better than his xwOBA of .332. My biggest concern is the 4-seam fastball which has one of the biggest gaps from wOBA to xwOBA in MLB at .230 vs. .320, and the average exit velocity is literally a "hard hit" baseball at 94.5 MPH.

Analysis:

I have the Padres winning just over 57 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -134. Tyler Anderson remains one of the biggest negative regression candidates in the league as his .282 actual wOBA has drastically outperformed his .340 xwOBA. My biggest concern is his 4-seam fastball (40% of pitches) and the .391 xwOBA. On the other side I expect the Angels to struggle with Waldron's knuckleball. I'm on the Padres -122.

Analysis:

I'm backing the Astros again at +100. I have them winning 54 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -117. Houston has been the best team in MLB at home this season in terms of wOBA, and has the lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching. Pablo Lopez enters this one with the highest hard hit and barrel rates of his career. I'm on Houston here.

Analysis:

The massive park shift in Seattle will be a nice boost for Verlander who is already inducing soft contact. The Mariners strikeout more than anyone in the league against right-handed pitching and I expect that to continue in this matchup. My simulations have the Astros as 54 percent winners which implies this line should be -117.

Analysis:

I have the Phillies winning 56 percent of simulations which implies a moneyline price of -127. I want to continue to pick on Blake Snell who has really struggled with his 4-seam fastball (94 MPH average exit velocity) and changeup (.504 actual and .437 xwOBA). The park shift will help Phillies pitching in this matchup.

Analysis:

My simulations have the Yankees winning 56 percent in this matchup which implies a money line price of -127. Rodon should benefit from the pitching environment in San Diego, and the Padres have really struggled against left-handed pitching ranking just 24th in wOBA. The Yankees have a lineup edge and a sizable bullpen edge. Both teams are dealing with cross-country travel as the Padres return home from their roadtrip.

Analysis:

I played the Royals +105 on SuperBook as my model has them winning 53 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -113. This is a great pitching matchup with Skubal vs. Ragans, but I give the Royals the edge in the day game at home.

Analysis:

Logan Gilbert has been decent for Seattle but largely benefits from the friendly pitching environment at home. Gilbert's road splits put him closer to league average than elite. Marcus Stroman should keep the ball on the ground enough, and possibly pick up an extra strikeout or two against the Mariners who strikeout the most in the league against right-handed pitching. I have the Yankees wining 59 percent of simulations which suggests this line should be -144.

Analysis:

I like this buy low spot on the Astros and Hunter Brown. I have Houston winning 54 percent of simulations which implies -118. The Astros are off to a slow start to the season but they're still 7th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. I have concerns with Peralta throwing his fastball over 50% of the time considering the .361xwOBA and double digit barrel rate.

Analysis:

I played the Yankees +100 on SuperBook. I make them 54% winners against Pablo Lopez in these conditions which implies this money line should be -117. Marcus Stroman should be in line for a quality start with winds blowing in and low humidity in Minnesota.

Analysis:

I played New York at -125 on SuperBook. I have the Yankees winning 59 percent of simulations which suggests this money line should be -144. Paddack has been decent for Minnesota so far, but I have concerns with his slider (.373 xwOBA) and his changeup (.399 xwOBA) against the power lineup the Yankees will run out there. Rodon has been great and the bullpen is rested after a day off. I'm on the Yankees.

Analysis:

I'm playing the Royals again on Friday at (-108) as my sims have them winning 56 percent of the time with Alec Marsh vs. Griffin Canning, which implies a moneyline of -127. Canning has struggled with his fastball, and the Royals don't strikeout much vs. RHP (2nd fewest in MLB at just 17.9%).